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Research in the NOAA OAR Arctic Research Office Activities Supported by Base Funds in FY2000 Joint IARC/CIFAR Research In FY2000, the NOAA Arctic Research Office developed a partnership with the National Science Foundation and the International Arctic Research Center at the University of Alaska to conduct a research program focused on climate variability and on persistent contaminants in the Arctic. This partnership resulted from a unique confluence of mutual interest and unexpected funding that NSF chose to obligate through NOAA because of NOAA's on-going joint programs at the University of Alaska. NSF anticipates establishing its own institutional arrangement with the University of Alaska in the future. The research initiated in FY2000 focused on 5 climate themes and 1 contaminant theme, with several specific topics associated with each: A. detection of contemporary climate change in the Arctic changes in sea ice role of shallow tundra lakes in climate comparison of Arctic warming in the 1920s and the present variability in the polar atmosphere dynamics of the Arctic Oscillation downscaling model output for Arctic change detection long-term climate trends in northern Alaska and adjacent Seas B. Arctic paleoclimate reconstructions drilling in the Bering land bridge Arctic treeline investigation Mt. Logan ice core test models to simulate millennial-scale variability C. Atmosphere-ice-land-ocean interactions and feedbacks impact of Arctic sea ice variability on the atmosphere model-based study of aerosol intrusions into the Arctic international intercomparison of Arctic regional climate models reconstruction of Arctic ocean circulation intercomparison of Arctic ocean models Arctic freshwater budget variation in the Arctic vortex role of Arctic ocean in climate variability Arctic Oscillation and variability of the upper ocean D. Arctic atmospheric chemistry assessment of UV variability in the Arctic Arctic UV, aerosol, and ozone aerosols in the Finnish Arctic inhomogeneities of the Arctic atmosphere aerosol-cloud interactions and feedbacks Arctic haze variability E. Impacts and consequences of global climate change on biota and ecosystems in the Arctic linking optical signals to functional changes in Arctic ecosystems marine ecosystem response to Arctic climate changes faunal succession in high Arctic ecosystems long-term biophysical observations in the Bering Sea cryoturbation-ecosystem interactions predicting carbon dioxide flux from soil organic matter F. Contaminant Sources, Transport, Pathways, Impacts using apex marine predators to monitor climate and contamination change trends in atmospheric deposition of contaminants assessment of data on persistent organic pollutants in the Arctic paleorecords of atmospheric deposition derived from peat bog cores toxicological effects of bio-accumulated pollutants Under these themes, 45 research projects were initiated that will continue into 2001. The support for these projects totals $8 million over two years, of which only $1 million comes from NOAA. This tremendous leverage cannot be expected to continue; however the Arctic Research Office will continue its interactions with the International Arctic Research Center and seek collaborative efforts whenever possible. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment The United States has agreed to lead the other seven Arctic countries to undertake an Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA). This assessment will culminate in 2002 with a peer-reviewed report on the state of knowledge of climate variability and change in the Arctic, a set of possible climate change scenarios, and an analysis of the impacts on ecosystems, infrastructure, and socio-economic systems that might result from the various climate change scenarios. NOAA and NSF will provide support in FY2000, with the ARO providing early support and leadership for planning the ACIA. Scientific Planning and Diversity The Arctic Research Office will support scientific planning, information dissemination, and NOAA's diversity goals through workshops and other activities. An international conference on Arctic Pollution, Biomarkers, and Human Health will be held in May, 2000. The conference is being organized by the National Institutes of Environmental Health Sciences, with co-sponsorship by NSF and the Arctic Research Office. Research planning activities are being supported that will lead to future program activities related to climate variability and change and to impacts from contamination of the Arctic. The Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) is being planned on an interagency basis, with the Arctic Research Office providing input for NOAA. An Alaskan Contaminants Program (ACP) is under development, with leadership coming from organizations within the state of Alaska. To accelerate the flow of minorities into scientific fields of interest to NOAA, the Arctic Research Office will undertake an effort in conjunction with Alaskan Native organizations that will encourage young Native students to obtain degrees in scientific fields. Outlook to FY2001 The Arctic Research Office will use resources available on FY2001 to begin implementation of the interagency Arctic climate science plan "Study of Environmental Arctic Change" (SEARCH). The NOAA/ARO role in SEARCH will involve long-term observations of the ocean, atmosphere and cryosphere, improved computer-based modeling of climate with an emphasis on the Arctic, and diagnostic analysis and assessment of climate data and information from the Arctic. Funds available in FY2001 will permit planning and limited prototype observation and modeling activities. The role of the NOAA/ARO in the Alaska Contaminants Program will become during the last half of FY2000, and some initial activities may be undertaken in FY2001. In addition, the NOAA/ARO will continue its partial sponsorship of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, being pursued on an international basis with the involvement of all 8 Arctic countries. It is anticipated that the ARO will provide support to experts to produce portions of the draft state-of-knowledge report during FY2001 and conduct one or more review workshops.
Our central geophysical objective is to determine how sea ice and the polar oceans respond to and influence the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere. Our primary technical objective is to determine how best to incorporate satellite measurements in an ice/ocean model.
The Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA) was formally initiated in 1995 by combining into one coordinated program various investigations associated with efforts, started in 1991, to assess whether airborne laser altimetry could be applied to measure ice-sheet thickness changes. It has the prime goal of measuring and understanding the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet, with a view to assessing its present and possible future impact on sea level. It includes: · Airborne laser-altimetry surveys along precise repeat tracks across all major ice drainage basins, in order to measure changes in ice-surface elevation. · Ice thickness measurements along the same flight lines. · Shallow ice cores at many locations to infer snow-accumulation rates and their spatial and interannual variability, recent climate history, and atmospheric chemistry. · Estimating snow-accumulation rates from atmospheric model diagnosis of precipitation rates from winds and moisture amounts given by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses. · Surface-based measurements of ice motion at 30-km intervals approximately along the 2000-m contour completely around the ice sheet, in order to calculate total ice discharge for comparison with total snow accumulation, and thus to infer the mass balance of most of the ice sheet. · Local measurements of ice thickness changes in shallow drill holes ("dh/dt" sites in Figure 1). · Investigations of individual glaciers and ice streams responsible for much of the outflow from the ice sheet. · Monitoring of surface characteristics of the ice sheet using satellite radar altimetry, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), passive-microwave, scatterometer and visible and infrared data. · Investigations of surface energy balance and factors affecting snow accumulation and surface ablation. · Continuous monitoring of crustal motion using global positioning system (GPS) receivers at coastal sites.
In September 1997, the CCGS Des Groseillers was frozen into the permanent ice-pack and started a year-long science program drifting across the southern Canada Basin. This program provided a unique opportunity to carry out a "vertical" food-chain study in a seasonal context to learn how the physical and biological systems couple to produce contaminant entry into the food web (Figure 1). "Vertical" components included the water and ice, particles, algae, zooplankton (sorted by trophic level), fish and seal.. The interpretation of contaminant data collected during SHEBA will provide information about the relationship between seasonal ice formation and melt, seasonal atmospheric transport and water column organochlorine concentrations in the Canada Basin. In addition our contaminant sampling program was integrated within a larger science plan where other SHEBA researchers studied the physical and biological properties of the water column. This means that contaminant distributions can be interpreted and modeled within the full context of physical, chemical and biological processes, and of atmospheric and oceanic transport mechanisms.
The scientific objectives of this project is to add information that helps elucidate the role of the Arctic Mediterranean Seas (Arctic Ocean and Nordic Seas) in the climatic system of the Northern Europe. More specifically it has the following aims: - To assess the heat and carbon dioxide fluxes over the air-sea interface in the Barents Sea and elucidate the effect this has on the formation of Arctic Ocean intermediate waters and associated carbon fluxes. - To assess the temporal variability of the fresh water distribution in the Arctic Ocean, both river runoff and sea ice melt, and the affect this has on the outflow of fresh water to the regions of open ocean deep water formation (the Greenland, Iceland and Labrador Seas). - To assess the mixing of upper and intermediate waters along the East Greenland Current that gives the properties of the overflow into the North Atlantic Ocean and thus add to the driving of the thermohaline circulation. This also contributes to the sequestering of anthropogenic carbon dioxide.
It has become clear in recent years that a changing composition of the atmosphere due to human activities may influence the climate system. The production of greenhouse gases and their accumulation in the atmosphere can result in a global warming and changes in the climate system. On regional scales, this may result in even much more pronounced changes. This is particularly true for the high northern latitudes. Climate changes will impact the society and nature in many ways. The anticipated effects are large and will matter both globally (mainly negative consequences) and regionally (both negative and positive consequences). SWECLIM provides users with detailed regional climate study results. SWECLIM develops regional (limited area) climate system modeling, studies climate processes and feedback special for the Nordic region and creates regional climate (change) scenarios on a time scale of 50-100 years. SWECLIM also performs impact studies on water resources. Climate scenarios are also made available for other impact studies, such as in forestry, done by external groups. Information activities on climate change and the regional consequences are an important component in the program. The regional climate model system is built around a regional atmospheric model, regional ocean models with sea ice for the Baltic Sea and land surface modeling plus hydrology. The model system is forced at the by large-scale results from global climate models. Multi-year to multi-decade length integrations are performed with the regional model targeting a domain roughly centered on the Nordic countries and using horizontal resolutions ranging from 20-80 km.
The North Slope of Alaska/Adjacent Arctic Ocean Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) site is providing data about cloud and radiative processes at high latitudes. These data are being used to refine models and parameterizations as they relate to the Arctic. The NSA/AAO site is centered at Barrow and extends to the south (to the vicinity of Atqasuk), west (to the vicinity of Wainwright), and east (perhaps to Oliktok). The Adjacent Arctic Ocean was probed by the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic (SHEBA) experiment, a multi-agency program led by the National Science Foundation and the Office of Naval Research. SHEBA involved the deployment of an instrumented ice camp within the perennial Arctic Ocean ice pack that began in October 1997 and lasted for 12 monthsB. For the planning period covered here, a major focus will be on completing the facilities at Atqasuk, 100 km inland from Barrow. Presently, the instrumentation shelters are located on a gravel pad turn-around at the end of a dead end road between the town of Atqasuk and its airport. To comply with the terms of our land lease, we will construct a platform on pilings adjacent to the gravel pad and move the shelters off the roadway and onto the platform. The platform will permit long-term deployment of the Atqasuk instrumentation in a manner very similar to that at Barrow. Sky radiation (SKYRAD) radiometric instrumentation will be mounted above the level of the roof of the shelters so as to avoid shadowing, and the ground radiation (GNDRAD) instrumentation will be mounted on a tip tower such as the one about to be installed at Barrow. At Atqasuk, during the CY 2000 melt season, the science team heat flux study begun during the CY 1999 melt season will resume in spring with the redeployment of a laser scintillometer. In addition, heat flux measurements will begin near Barrow on the shore of the Beaufort Sea in the same time frame. Also at Barrow, a mini-IOP is planned during spring 2000 that will bring together two extended-range atmospheric emitted radiance interferometers (ER-AERIs) (including the one permanently installed at Barrow), one normal range downward-looking AERI (for snow characterization), and one or two other extended-range upward-looking Fourier transform infrared spectrometers (FTIRs). Various other less major enhancements will be made to the instrumentation suites of both Barrow and Atqasuk. Both facilities, however, will continue to be strongly focused on Instantaneous Radiative Flux (IRF) experiments for this planning period. A Single-Column Model (SCM) experiment utilizing either subscale or full scale aircraft that had been proposed for the NSA/AAO for CY2000 will be put off for a year.
The objectives are: 1. to monitor in near-real time the levels of a whole suite of halocarbons (both biogenic and anthropogenic) ranging through CFCs, HCFCs, and HFCs using an adsorption/desorption system coupled to a GC/MS system not using liquid cryogens. 2.The system will be installed (April 2000) at the Ny-Alesund, Zeppelin Research Station and will be operated and owned by NILU (Dr. N.SChmidbauer). 3. Comparisons will be made with the data obtained (since Oct. 1994) on similar compounds from the Mace Head (Ireland) station which uses similar instrumentation, and the Jungfraujoch Station (Jan 2000) operated by EMPA (Dr. Stefan Reimann). 4. Data will be compared to the Southern Hemisphere data collected at Cape Grimm, Tasmania by CSIRO (Dr. P. Fraser) 5. Data will be used to model the dispersion of the halocarbons in the high latitudes and possible consequences for radiative forcing.